Yingli Green Energy (YGE) is the first among Chinese solar companies to announce first-quarter metrics – and it was not pretty.
Yingli Green Energy now expects first-quarter solar volume to decline by a low thirty percent. The company had guided a mid-20% decline. As a result, Credit Suisse lowered its 2014 earnings forecast to a loss of $0.42 per share, from $0.33. Here are analysts Patrick Jobin, Brandon Heiken and Maheep Mandloi:
We lower our Q1 estimate to a loss of $0.30 per share (from a loss of $0.21) as our margins assumptions are lowered to 16% from 18% and volumes are lowered to a 33% decline from 25%. Our 2014 earnings estimate is reduced to a loss of $0.42 per share (from a loss of $0.33).
Yingli Green Energy’s new guidance may pressure all Chinese solar stocks, because the company “attributed the lower volume to weaker than expected demand in China,” noted Credit Suisse. It may be a firm-specific issue, but also “possible Q1 demand could be weaker than expected for companies with a significant exposure to China.” Yingli had a 53% volume exposure to China in the fourth-quarter.
If Yingli’s problem was industry-wide, the other Chinese solar companies may have to guide their Q1 volume down too. For instance, Trina Solar (TSL) guided a 11% decline, but has a 40% volume exposure to China; JA Solar (JASO) guided 10.6% decline and has a 53% exposure; Canadian Solar (CSIQ), 22.7% decline, 43% China exposure.......
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/...-says-credit-suisse/
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